隨著以特斯拉為代表的電動(dòng)車開(kāi)始奔馳于全球各地的道路上，電動(dòng)車已經(jīng)毫不疑問(wèn)地成為了傳統(tǒng)汽車的革命者，不管未來(lái)是多久，傳統(tǒng)燃油車將勢(shì)必退出歷史舞臺(tái)。不過(guò)，在現(xiàn)階段，由于產(chǎn)品本身以及配套設(shè)施的不完善（比如續(xù)航、售價(jià)、充電樁普及程度等），對(duì)大多數(shù)人來(lái)說(shuō)，未來(lái)它能頂半邊天就已經(jīng)是最好的結(jié)果了。
不過(guò)，麻省理工學(xué)院（MIT) 研究人員通過(guò)分析美國(guó)各地司機(jī)的駕駛習(xí)慣，發(fā)現(xiàn)“里程焦慮”被過(guò)分夸大了，他們認(rèn)為 目前的電動(dòng)汽車可以取代馬路上 87%的私家車。此外，研究人員認(rèn)為如果電池技術(shù)仍按照目前的速度發(fā)展， 到 2020 年，電動(dòng)汽車可以取代馬路上 98%的車輛。
研究人員發(fā)現(xiàn)，那些價(jià)格更為低廉的電動(dòng)車，已經(jīng)可以在售價(jià)和性能上達(dá)到完美平衡，而且也不是所有人都要開(kāi)電動(dòng)車長(zhǎng)途旅行，它們是日常通勤的利器，因此，公共充電樁的建設(shè)對(duì)此類車輛來(lái)說(shuō)并不是當(dāng)務(wù)之急（用戶可以回家充電）。此外，研究人員稱，雖然電動(dòng)車的售價(jià)稍高，但在養(yǎng)護(hù)上卻比傳統(tǒng)汽油車更有優(yōu)勢(shì)，整個(gè)使用周期中兩者的花費(fèi)已經(jīng)差別不大。
據(jù)了解，因?yàn)殡妱?dòng)汽車使用單一的電能源，省去了發(fā)動(dòng)機(jī)、變速器、油箱、冷卻和排氣系統(tǒng)，所以結(jié)構(gòu)較簡(jiǎn)單。因而維修保養(yǎng)費(fèi)用有了一定幅度的降低，根據(jù)業(yè)內(nèi)人士估算，下降幅度可達(dá)到 30%。
如果這一目標(biāo)實(shí)現(xiàn)，美國(guó)的燃油消耗量將大降 60%，同時(shí)減少 30%的溫室氣體排放，精確到數(shù)字來(lái)說(shuō)，可以減排 18 億公噸的溫室氣體（相當(dāng)于 2014 年美國(guó)交通中車輛排放的所有溫室氣體總量）
不過(guò)，想實(shí)現(xiàn) 87%的占有率目標(biāo)可不容易，因?yàn)檠巯旅绹?guó)的電動(dòng)車市場(chǎng)占有率僅有 0.7%，而由于油價(jià)持續(xù)在低位徘徊，插電混動(dòng)類車輛的銷量在 2014-2015 年間下降了 17%。
這是一個(gè)有趣的發(fā)現(xiàn)，這個(gè)發(fā)現(xiàn)表明多少個(gè)家庭能夠開(kāi)始用比較環(huán)保的手段來(lái)出行，負(fù)責(zé)這項(xiàng)研究的杰西卡說(shuō)到。比如說(shuō)一個(gè)有兩個(gè)汽車的家庭，一個(gè)燃油車，一個(gè)電動(dòng)車。燃油車可以滿足司機(jī)全國(guó)旅行的需求，這樣就增大了大部分的短途采用電動(dòng)車的可能。
這個(gè)研究也發(fā)現(xiàn)有更多大眾可以購(gòu)買的起的電動(dòng)汽車，例如福特的?？怂购湍嵘eaf可以每天充電一次，不管在家里還是工作場(chǎng)所，是可以滿足大家能源和錢包的需求。這樣的話，公共充電樁的缺失，將不是一個(gè)很大的影響。雖然電動(dòng)車的初始購(gòu)買價(jià)格很貴，研究者得出結(jié)論電動(dòng)汽車的運(yùn)行成本遠(yuǎn)低于燃油車，這將使電動(dòng)車的全壽命周期的成本可以和燃油車相比。
這個(gè)研究也說(shuō)明偏遠(yuǎn)的地方比城市區(qū)域更難于接受電動(dòng)汽車，但是不同城市對(duì)電動(dòng)汽車的接受度是差不多的，不管是擁擠的紐約還是雜亂的休斯頓。數(shù)據(jù)顯示，87%的傳統(tǒng)車輛可以被電動(dòng)汽車所取代。杰西卡說(shuō)研究者正在研究一個(gè)APP，這個(gè)APP將告訴購(gòu)車族一年里有多少天電動(dòng)汽車可以滿足他們的出行要求，并建議可能的兩個(gè)車的車主在他們需要長(zhǎng)途出行的時(shí)間里購(gòu)買那種型號(hào)的電動(dòng)車還是燃油車。
不管電動(dòng)汽車的技術(shù)的先進(jìn)性還是將來(lái)有更多的充電站，總有一些天電動(dòng)車不能滿足客戶的要求，這時(shí)租車或者車輛共享服務(wù)這樣的新型商業(yè)模式將會(huì)滿足這樣的需求。杰西卡指出，他們?cè)陔妱?dòng)汽車上需要更多的量化的研究。
杰西卡同時(shí)說(shuō)道：基本的常識(shí)是不足以說(shuō)明問(wèn)題，基本常識(shí)容易使人民認(rèn)為未來(lái)的潛力過(guò)高或者過(guò)低，你可能偏向極端的兩個(gè)方向。很重要的是大家要提出這個(gè)問(wèn)題，我們用數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)說(shuō)明問(wèn)題。
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英語(yǔ)的原文： MIT: 87% of cars could be electric（Amrith Ramkumar, Bloomberg News）
With all the limits on electric vehicles — battery life, cost, the availability of charging stations — you might expect that at most 50 percent of the vehicles on U.S. roads could be replaced by more-sustainable cars.
Buckle up: It’s 87 percent, MIT reckons, in a study published Monday in the journal Nature Energy. Such a proportion, if it were the case today, would lead to a 60 percent reduction in total U.S. gasoline consumption and a 30 percent decrease in the1.8 billion metric tons of greenhouse gas emissions emitted by all American transportation in 2014. Transportation represents 26 percent of America’s total greenhouse gas emissions.
That’s huge. It’s also a thought experiment. Currently 0.7 percent of vehicles in the U.S. are electric, and plug-in electric vehicle sales declined 17 percent from 2014 to 2015.
But it’s an interesting one. The findings represent a “technical potential” that shows how many households could start living more sustainably now, said Jessika Trancik, who led the study. For instance, in a two-car household, having one electric car and one conventional vehicle could meet drivers’ needs across the country and significantly increase the number of electric vehicles on the road.
The researchers found that more affordable electric vehicles, such as the Ford Focus Electric and the Nissan Leaf, could meet our energy and affordability needs if people recharged their cars just once daily, either overnight at home or during the day at work. Then the scarcity of public charging stations wouldn’t be as pressing. And although electric vehicles’ sticker prices are higher, the researchers concluded that their operating costs would be lower than for conventional cars. This would make the overall costs comparable.
The study noted that rural areas had a slightly smaller adoptive potential than urban areas but found similar potential across different types of cities, ranging from more compact cities such as New York and to more sprawling ones like Houston.
Trancik hopes the research will show how the potential for EV adoption could exceed even 87 percent. She said the researchers are developing an app based on their model that could tell car shoppers how many days per year an electric vehicle could meet their needs and advise two-car households on which type of car, EV or regular, they should use on high-energy-consumption days.
Regardless of advances in technology and the addition of charging stations, there will always be days on which electric vehicles can’t get the job done. For these, Trancik said, there would need to be better car-sharing services or advancements in other environmentally friendly cars that could fill in the gaps. She also pointed to the need for further quantitative research on EVs.
“Common sense isn’t enough. Common sense leads people to conclude either that the potential is high or low. You have extreme views on both ends,” she said. “It’s important to unpack that question and ask research questions that we can answer quantitatively.”
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